Friday, November 16, 2012

My 2012 Election Predictions: Results

So how did I do on my 2012 election predictions?  Let's just say that nobody is going to hire me to high-salaried prognostication job anytime soon.

Uberly-General, Stupidly Obvious Predictions

I correctly predicted that President Obama would win the election and the popular vote, that the Democrats would win the senate, the Republicans would win the house and that the color red would still be red.

One word - "Duh!" - so let's move on.

The Juicy Bits

It took me a while to get this post our thanks to all the undecided house races, but I'm now comfortable enough with the reported election results to make calls on all my predictions.

1. President Obama will be declared the victor by the majority of the press at precisely 11:00 PM Eastern time (MOE: 1 minute)

WRONG.  I was off by 13 minutes.  This prediction was based on my belief that Ohio would be called before 11:00 eastern and that Oregon would be called the minute the polls closed.

2. President Obama will win 50.7% of the popular vote (MOE: 0.2%)

BINGO!  Barack Obama received 50.6% of the vote.  I managed to get this one right even though I forgot to factor in the 1.6% that voted for 'other'.  I got lucky.

3. The House of Representatives will be split 242(R), 193(D) (MOE: 5 seats)

WRONG (most likely). Results to date: 234(R), 195(D), 6(undecided).  Based on these numbers you'd think I'd still be in the running, but the 6 undecided races are all leaning Democrat.  The odds are that at least half will land in the (D) column putting the results outside the margin of error.

4. The Senate will be split 51(D), 47(R), 2(I) (MOE: 0)

WRONG.  Results: 53(D), 45(R), 2(1).

The Tally

Only one right - 25% - 1/4 - that's pretty bad.

The one thing that really surprised me was how my predictions broke.  My expectation was that, if anything, the GOP might throw a wrench in my predictions and do a better then expected.  Instead, it was the Dems who messed me up.

Two more years until the next major election.  I'll make my predictions again .  Perhaps I can be even more wrong.

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